At New Day we use Money Matters in Church: A Practical Guide for Leaders to project income for the upcoming year. The book outlines two main ways to project income. In this post I’ll cover the second. In my previous post I covered the first which you can view by clicking here. The second method is called the “Projected Attendance x Projected Per Capita Method.” This is straight out of the book (which I highly recommend you purchase):
Year Avg Attendance Increase Giving Per Capita Increase
2004 291 $300,000 $1,031 / 52 = $19.83
2005 382 91 $450,080 $1,178 / 52 = $22.65 $2.82
2006 471 89 $575,600 $1,222 / 52 = $23.50 $0.85
2007 553 82 $725,800 $1,312 / 52 = $25.23 $1.73
Add the three years worth of attendance increases together (91+89+82=262). Then divide 262 by 3. This gives you an average increase in attendance of 87 a year.
Next add the three years worth of per capita increases together ($2.82+$0.85+$1.73=$5.40). Then divide $5.40 by 3. This gives you an average per capita increase of $1.80 a year.
2007 attendance 553
+ projected average attendance increase 87
Projected 2008 average attendance 640
2007 per capita giving $25.23/week
+ projected per capita increase $1.80
Projected 2008 per capita giving $27.03/week
$27.03 x 52 = $1,406 per capita per year
2008 projected average attendance 640
2008 projected annual per capita giving $1,406
2008 projected giving $899,840
At New Day we project income using method one (to view method one click here). Then we project income using method two (above). Then we use the average of the two projections and use that. We choose not to go with the highest of the two because it’s always better to overestimate expenses and underestimate income.